Al Davis Plus the Points 11.30 Podcast

Our most recent podcast reviews Week 12 of NFL action, previews some big college football games, goes big dick swingin' as usual and determines the accuracy of Snickers' advertising campaign.

Brandon's 55 Percenters

Not my best weekend at 2-3-1, but I have a late addition, mainly because I'm angry about the Jets/Panthers loss.

Jaguars / NINERS Under 42.5

This just seems like too many points for two offenses that struggle. David Garrard + Alex Smith = Under. That sounds like legit math to me.

Stay tuned, I may add some NBA action tonight if I like any of the lines.

Jake's 'Mikey's for the Weekend

Sorry, I'm posting a little late because I've been busy packing. This week won't have as many as last because to be completely honest, I don't like a lot of the lines. It's weak... but deal with it, Brandon put up like 50 in the last three days, just go off that. Wow, that sounded hostile... I apologize my little cuties.

Washington State (+24.5) over WASHINGTON - just a poo-poo platter game. Both these teams are atrocious - I mean they have a combined 4 wins (3 of which are the Huskies). Washington might not even put up 25 points period.

Arizona (-3) over ASU - Siegs picked it too, great minds think alike.

Colts (-3.5) over TEXANS - the Colts just scraped out a win against the Ravens last week, and the Texans are on short rest. This was a tough game to pick but for some reason I like the Colts here. The Colts defense is playing really well and the Texans cannot run the football. For some reason my gut tells me that the Colts undefeated run stops here, but my gut is also hungry... so, I like the Colts to win here by more than 3.5 on the road.

Seahawks/RAMS Under 42.5 - just like the Wash St./Wash game this one has all the makings for a stinker. It's a borderline unwatchable game featuring two horse shit teams. The Rams don't have a quarterback and the Seahawks just can't seem to score period.

Dolphis (-3) over BILLS - I said on this website that Miami would beat Carolina and that Ricky Williams would have a great game. Where was I going with this? Sorry I was bragging about the game and forgot. Oh yeah, Bills-Phins. Well the Panthers are a helluva lot better than the Bills, so by the Transitive Property that means that the Dolphins should win by more than they did against the Carolina... or Dolphis eat Buffalos. It's science, don't question it.

VIKINGS (-11) over Bears - picking the Vikings? Woof.

Patriots (+3) over SAINTS - I may be one of three people in America questioning how good the Saints are and not calling them 'The Best Team in the NFC'. Other than the Eagles (meh), the Giants (who were in a slide), and the Falcons (awful away from home) they have not beat a team with a winning record. On the flip side, I might argue that the Patriots are one of the 2 or 3 best teams in the entire National Football League. The Saints have been putting up Playstation numbers, but unlucky for them the Patriots play defense. I still think it will be high scoring, but I like the Patriots by at least a touchdown.

'Mikey's Record: 5-2 (.714)
Last Week’s Record: 5-2 (.714)
All Time on ADPTP: 5-2 (.714)

Brandon's 55 Percenters

My Wednesday evening picks went well, going 4-1 overall. This weekend has fewer games as the college season wraps up and the NFL lost three games to Thanksgiving Day. Therefore, there are only four football picks for the weekend, although I do have two bonus NBA picks for tonight. Let’s do it!

Mavs -3.5 over PACERS

The German pseudo mullet and friends came through for me on Wednesday, so I’ll hope they can do the same in this one. The Mavs are clearly the better team and Danny Granger is still questionable for the Pacers. Even if he plays, this team is not spectacular and I expect the Mavs to find a way to win, relatively easily.

Knicks / NUGGETS Under 219

Vegas keeps pumping up Knicks Over / Unders because of their pace, despite the fact that this team cannot put the ball in the hoop. I expect the Nugs and Birdman to fly tonight and I am slightly worried that they may score 120+ on their own. With that said, I still think this under is a fifty five percenter. The Knicks are the gift that keeps on giving!

To the football...

North Carolina -5.5 over NORTH CAROLINA ST

These two teams are not even and this line should not be less than a touchdown. North Carolina State’s defense has been atrocious in the ACC, allowing over 4.5 yard per carry and 64% completions in conference play. Factor in that they are playing other mediocre ACC teams and defense like that is astoundingly bad. Give me the Tar Heels, even laying the points.

Arizona -3 over ARIZONA ST

Here, I am taking another road team in a rivalry game. Like UNC/NC St, these two teams just aren’t this even. Arizona could have been a Rose Bowl team if they would have hung on against Oregon while Arizona St has had an extremely disappointing season at 4-7. Despite the emotional let down that Arizona is bound to face after the crushing loss to Oregon, I think they win this one by more than a field goal.

Virginia Tech -15 over VIRGINIA

Let’s finish out the road teams in rivalry games! This one is not as close of a line, but it still isn’t big enough. Virginia’s anemic offense will struggle to score a point against this Aggie defense. I don’t think Virginia Tech is going to score a ridiculous amount of points, but enough to cover this spread. With the pick cleared up, may I ask what the hell an Aggie is? It is an awful word to say, I’ve never heard it used in regular speech yet several teams across the country are proud to be Aggies. (Hold on, I’m going to look it up...) Alright, it is a slang for a student enrolled in an agricultural school. I thought it was a terrible name before, but now I’m speechless. Really, your mascot is named after a slang term for students enrolled at your type of school? How do people at those schools stand for that? How uncreative can you be? I thought Stanford’s Cardinal (No, not Cardinals, Cardinal is a tree) was the worst mascot for the longest time. But without a doubt, Aggie has surpassed it. I better move on before I get legitimately angry.

Panthers / JETS over 41.5

This over is my only NFL play for the weekend. Both of these team’s defenses have been slowing falling apart and both QB’s are good for a Pick 6 every week. I really like betting the over in a battle between Delhomme and the Sanchise. It sounds so absolutely ridiculous that it has to work out. But seriously, neither of these teams can stop each other’s run games and there should be a decent amount of points scored here. Let’s make this the Bet of the Week and ride shotgun with Jake the Snake.

All Time of ADPTP: 9-5 (.643)
Last Week: 9-5 (.643)
Bet of the Week: 1-0 (1.000)

Al Davis Plus the Points Week 12 NFL Preview

This week's preview covers every NFL game on the slate, the lines and of course, some completely off topic tangents.

NFL Spread Picking Contest
Jake: 11-5
Brandon: 9-7

Brandon's 55 Percenters

Welcome back to the fifty five percenters. Through my first batch of games, I am doing exactly as I laid out, hitting 55% of my picks. I’ll have my usual football weekend fifty five percenters on Friday, but I have a few bonus NBA bets for tonight and one for the NFL slate tomorrow. Here are the picks...

Clippers +6 over PACERS

I know, betting on the Clippers and evil moron Mike Dunleavy is generally frowned upon in any intelligent circles, but this one seems easy. The Clips get Eric Gordon back, who I hated at Indiana, but is a nice young player nonetheless. The Pacers are missing Danny Granger, who is unequivocally their best player. The Pacers don’t blow people out with Granger, so I’ll take the Clips with the points tonight.

Mavericks +4 over ROCKETS

This battle of the Texas teams has been back and forth over the last few years, although Dallas destroyed Houston in these two teams first matchup this year. Mix that with Dirk Nowitzki’s fantastic German pseudo-mullet and I don’t see them losing this game by more than a possession. I’ll take the points and expect a close game.

Nets / TRAIL BLAZERS Under 181.5

This Nets team is beyond atrocious, although with Devin Harris back they may be slightly better. The Blazers with Greg Oden and his two different length legs play consistently good defense. The key stat in any NBA over/under is the pace at which the two teams play, which can be found in their shots per game and free throws per game. I’ll probably write a full article on this at some point, but for now, it will suffice just to tell you that both of these teams prefer a slow pace and will likely play at one tonight.

Knicks / KINGS Under 216

This Over / Under is insanely high. Yes both of these teams like a fast pace. BUT THEIR PLAYERS SUCK! I trust that one of these two teams will have an off shooting night, which is usually 7 nights a week for the Knicks, and keep us under the total. Let me warn you though, even if you bet on this game, shield your eyes. It won’t be pretty to watch.

Packers / LIONS Under 47.5

This one is not predicated on the Packers offense, which should shine. It is based on Daunte Culpepper getting the start and a questionable Calvin Johnson. This Packer team has shown consistently all year that they will pack it in and force the run when they get a comfortable lead. I expect the same to happen on Thanksgiving, especially when this Lions offense will be in the incompetent hands of Daunte Culpepper. I think McCarthy will want to end this game as quickly as possible and get his players out healthy, without excess plays being run. Oh, and did I mention that Daunte “I’m on a roll, unless you count actual results” Culpepper should be lining up behind center for Detroit?

All Time on ADPTP: 5-4 (.556)
Last Week’s Record: 5-4 (.556)
Bet of the Week Record: 1-0 (1.000)

Al Davis Plus the Points 11.23 Podcast

Jake's NFL Spread Picks Record : 10-5
Brandon's NFL Spread Picks Record : 8-7

Today's podcast runs the gamut from our picks review, hangovers, Packers, NFL week in review, college football talk, NBA talk and even an email from a listener. Enjoy!

Brandon's 55 Percenters

Posted by Brandon

This ongoing column will be my most frequently posted and hopefully, my most successful. The goal is simple: Hit 55% of my picks posted here to beat the juice that you will find at most sportsbooks. For those of you unfamiliar with sports betting (and how sorry for you I am) most sports bets require the bettor to bet $110 in order to win $100. This ten percent charge is called juice or vig and is how the casinos in Vegas pay their bills. Basically, if the books get even bets on both teams they are guaranteed to make that 10% off of the entire amount bet, or the handle. For the individual gambler, this means that one has to hit 52.5% of his bets just to break even. A bettor who can hit 55%, with discipline to bet only specific games, can actually beat the sportsbooks at their own game. That is what this article sets out to do.
I will be posting this weekly for football and it can contain any number of picks. I won’t limit myself to a specific number or require a certain number. There are only so many fifty-five percenters on a weekly basis. I may occasionally throw up a quick post as well adding a few NBA or NCAA bets during the week. At the end of each article I will keep a running tally to see how my progress is coming.
Unlike most gambling articles, this IS both meant to endorse and convince you to get in on the action. If you believe that you may have a gambling problem, then congratulations, you’ve reached Nirvana! To my first round of football weekend picks...

Maryland +18 over FLORIDA ST
I am by no means calling Maryland a good team. In fact, they are awful. But Florida St. giving anybody 18 points is absolutely ridiculous. Florida St. has covered this line exactly once all year and have since lost their best player, quarterback Christian Ponder. Their backup played well last week, but now Maryland has some tape to see how they want to attack him. On top of that, the old man Bobby Bowden is no longer an elite coach. Florida St. would run him out of town, but they don’t want AARP crawling up their ass. Call me skeptical of a mediocre team with a declining coach missing their best player and give me the points.

NORTHWESTERN +7 over Wisconsin
Believe me, it pains me to pick against my Badgers. I think they find a way to win this game, but I don’t see it being by more than one score. The Badgers haven’t won by more than a touchdown on the road all season and Pat Fitzgerald has this Northwestern team improving as the season goes along. Northwestern’s offense relies on a strong passing game and against the Badgers, I see that working. The Badgers cornerbacks typically refuse to look for the ball, instead deciding that staring straight ahead as they run down the field is a better way to prevent their man from catching the ball. Why doing the opposite of any empirical fact ever found makes sense I cannot tell you, but they insist on this idiotic practice. Let’s just say that I’m scared straight up, so I’ll take the points and call it a fifty-five percenter.

Rutgers -9 over SYRACUSE
Greg Schiano once again has his Rutgers team that struggled out of the gate gaining steam towards the end of the season. Throw in the steaming pile of horse crap also known as the Syracuse football program led my former Douche -- I mean Duke -- point guard Greg Paulus, and we have ourselves a blowout. I’ll happily lay the points here.

Kansas St. +16.5 over NEBRASKA
This is one of the most insane college football lines I have seen all season. Let me get this straight: I am suppose to give 16.5 points with a Nebraska team that lost to Iowa St. less than a month ago? This same Nebraska team hasn’t covered this spread against a Big 12 team all year. On top that, they are 4-2 in the conference while Kansas St. is right on their ass at 4-3. Either I am a complete idiot (completely possible) or this line is horribly, horribly wrong. I will label this one my Bet of the Week and laugh as the inept Nebraska offense struggles to SCORE 17, much less cover 17.

Oregon / ARIZONA Under 58.5
I think that this is a game where the general public gets wide eyes at two teams who can score some points and bets the over/under up to a point where it becomes a fifty-five percenter. While Oregon’s offense is loaded, Mike Stoops’ Arizona defense is holding teams to just 3.8 yards per carry in Pac Ten games. I think they can at least slow the Oregon offense enough to keep this one from getting into the 60’s for points scored. And if you think I’m wrong? Well, I’ll just LeGarrette Blount your ass. Sorry, that was too easy.

COWBOYS / Redskins Over 41.5
Jake and I sufficiently bucket dumped on Wade Phillips in the podcast, but I’ll reiterate here: he is a terrible coach. The defense that he has taken control of is merely mediocre and the Washington offense has surprisingly shown a few signs of life in the past few weeks. Throw in a Dallas offense with something to prove after their showing last week and I think this one cruises past this total. And besides that, Cowboys and Indians getting together always ends in a shootout. Wow, that was a TERRIBLE joke.

VIKINGS / Seahawks Over 46
This one is a borderline fifty-five percenter, but I think it just makes the cut. There is absolutely no way the Seahawks stop this Minnesota offense and I think they can manage enough points to send this one over. While we are here, I would like to thank Brett Favre for signing with the Vikings. I thought his actions were AGAINST the Packers, but I now see his logic. He was kind enough to get consistently creepy and child touching Brad Childress a nice fat contract extension, so the Packers get to face his ineptitude for at least several more years. Hide your children Minneapolis parents! We can now expect the Brett Favre second half collapse in five...four...three...

Saints / BUCS Under 51
I mentioned this one in the podcast. The Bucs pass defense has been surprisingly sound this year and I see the Saints running the ball more than usual this week. That should sufficiently run the clock and when coupled with Tampa’s stagnant offense, should give us an under. The Bucs defense should also return Stylez G. White this week. While that will make a difference, I really just wanted to mention the incredible name that is Stylez G. White. Did you know that he actually changed his name in honor of Stylez from Teen Wolf? Now THAT is fantastic!

PATRIOTS -11 over Jets
Bill Belichick angry. You won’t like him when he’s angry.

All Time on ADPTP: 0-0
Last Week’s Record: 0-0
Bet of the Week Record: 0-0

Jake's 'Mikey's of the Weekend

Remember Swingers? You should because it's fucking awesome. Anywho, since this site has a large dedication to gambling (because that is also awesome) Siegs and I have decided to do picks for each weekend. It'll be a Gumbo of both College and NFL picks. Now back to Swingers - my picks will be called 'Mikey's because just like Mikey, 'they're fuckin' money and you don't even know it'. Is that dumb? Yes, but I like it and it's partly my blog/podcast so sorry folks.
Lines may change after I've checked them, and as always the home team is in all caps.

Ohio State (-12) over MICHIGAN - people might still consider this a rivalry, but in order to have a rivalry one of the teams can't be awful. Let's look at the two teams - Michigan has been porous all season and OSU just beat Iowa to essentially take the Big Ten crown. My best guess is the Buckeyes are walking around like Big Dick Swinging thinking they won't lose another game this season... and as much as it pains me to say - they might now. Even though I like the -12, it's important to remember you can't spell C_ck _ _cker without OSU.

Oregon (-6) over ARIZONA - Oregon has proved that Ducks do actually fly together, and in this case it will be to another big Pac 10 win.

Penn St. (-3) over MICHIGAN STATE - in the words of Joe Pa - 'come to Penn staaAAAAAAATE'

Colts (-1) over RAVENS - the Colts just won a giant game against the Patriots and I'm not completely sold on the Ravens yet. They have an old defense (that is still good, don't get me wrong) and an offense that I don't trust (other than Ray Rice). I mean at this point, it's getting dumb to bet against Peyton 'Cooper is Better' Manning or the DSRL.

PATRIOTS (-11) over NY Jets - before Mark Sanchez finishes blow drying his chest hair the Pats may have already put up 21. Cut-Off sweatshirt was publicly shamed last week and I can see them taking it out on the Jets in the worst possible way. I described it in the podcast but I see the Pats going to the 'Jake Schnitzler Offense'. For those of you who did not attend The U (University of Wisconsin LaCrosse) the Jake Schnitzler offense is when you are playing Madden and you choose the team with Randy Moss, have him run a Post or Fly route then just bomb it and let the computer catch it. My prediction is that this will be an absolute blow out.

LSU (+4) over MISSISSIPPI - a tough SEC game for LSU, and even though they haven't really been good on the road I still like them against Ole Miss. The real reason I picked this game is because if you choose one of my other (phenomenal) picks to go along with this one and tease it you can move LSU up to +10.5. That is what we call a 'sexy' bet.

Not sure on this one but I like it.
TCU (-32) over WYOMING - TCU is ranked 4th in the country and Wyoming is atrocious... enough said.

Those are my 'Mikey's for the Weekend, as I believe we mentioned in the podcast both Brandon and I will be keeping track of both our Weekly NFL picks as well as our bets for the weekend in a running tally... so eventually you can choose which one of use you want to listen too. And since I'm a gambling man, I'll bet it's Brandon.

'Mikey's Record: 0-0
Last Week’s Record: 0-0
All Time on ADPTP: 1-0


Posted by Jake 11.20.09

Al Davis Plus the Points Week 11 NFL Preview

Our initial podcast, click link above to listen.

Welcome to Al Davis Plus the Points

Hey,

Jake and Brandon here thanking everyone for following our new biweekly Sports/Gambling/Boozing podcast. As I mentioned it will be biweekly, mainly Monday and Thursday during the NFL season. Thursday will be spent mostly going over the week to come in the NFL and going over our picks including the spread. Then Monday we will post what happened over the weekend (mostly including how awfully wrong we were).

And don't worry folks there will also plenty of written content and when the NFL season ends (God forbid it actually does) we will seamlessly move into the NBA, NCAA, and MLB seasons... and what the Hell we might make hodge podge shows including a little bit of everything.

Hope we keep you somewhat entertained, and as always take Al Davis Plus the Points.

~Jake and Brandon