Brandon's 55 Percenters

My Wednesday evening picks went well, going 4-1 overall. This weekend has fewer games as the college season wraps up and the NFL lost three games to Thanksgiving Day. Therefore, there are only four football picks for the weekend, although I do have two bonus NBA picks for tonight. Let’s do it!

Mavs -3.5 over PACERS

The German pseudo mullet and friends came through for me on Wednesday, so I’ll hope they can do the same in this one. The Mavs are clearly the better team and Danny Granger is still questionable for the Pacers. Even if he plays, this team is not spectacular and I expect the Mavs to find a way to win, relatively easily.

Knicks / NUGGETS Under 219

Vegas keeps pumping up Knicks Over / Unders because of their pace, despite the fact that this team cannot put the ball in the hoop. I expect the Nugs and Birdman to fly tonight and I am slightly worried that they may score 120+ on their own. With that said, I still think this under is a fifty five percenter. The Knicks are the gift that keeps on giving!

To the football...

North Carolina -5.5 over NORTH CAROLINA ST

These two teams are not even and this line should not be less than a touchdown. North Carolina State’s defense has been atrocious in the ACC, allowing over 4.5 yard per carry and 64% completions in conference play. Factor in that they are playing other mediocre ACC teams and defense like that is astoundingly bad. Give me the Tar Heels, even laying the points.

Arizona -3 over ARIZONA ST

Here, I am taking another road team in a rivalry game. Like UNC/NC St, these two teams just aren’t this even. Arizona could have been a Rose Bowl team if they would have hung on against Oregon while Arizona St has had an extremely disappointing season at 4-7. Despite the emotional let down that Arizona is bound to face after the crushing loss to Oregon, I think they win this one by more than a field goal.

Virginia Tech -15 over VIRGINIA

Let’s finish out the road teams in rivalry games! This one is not as close of a line, but it still isn’t big enough. Virginia’s anemic offense will struggle to score a point against this Aggie defense. I don’t think Virginia Tech is going to score a ridiculous amount of points, but enough to cover this spread. With the pick cleared up, may I ask what the hell an Aggie is? It is an awful word to say, I’ve never heard it used in regular speech yet several teams across the country are proud to be Aggies. (Hold on, I’m going to look it up...) Alright, it is a slang for a student enrolled in an agricultural school. I thought it was a terrible name before, but now I’m speechless. Really, your mascot is named after a slang term for students enrolled at your type of school? How do people at those schools stand for that? How uncreative can you be? I thought Stanford’s Cardinal (No, not Cardinals, Cardinal is a tree) was the worst mascot for the longest time. But without a doubt, Aggie has surpassed it. I better move on before I get legitimately angry.

Panthers / JETS over 41.5

This over is my only NFL play for the weekend. Both of these team’s defenses have been slowing falling apart and both QB’s are good for a Pick 6 every week. I really like betting the over in a battle between Delhomme and the Sanchise. It sounds so absolutely ridiculous that it has to work out. But seriously, neither of these teams can stop each other’s run games and there should be a decent amount of points scored here. Let’s make this the Bet of the Week and ride shotgun with Jake the Snake.

All Time of ADPTP: 9-5 (.643)
Last Week: 9-5 (.643)
Bet of the Week: 1-0 (1.000)

Brandon's 55 Percenters

Posted by Brandon

This ongoing column will be my most frequently posted and hopefully, my most successful. The goal is simple: Hit 55% of my picks posted here to beat the juice that you will find at most sportsbooks. For those of you unfamiliar with sports betting (and how sorry for you I am) most sports bets require the bettor to bet $110 in order to win $100. This ten percent charge is called juice or vig and is how the casinos in Vegas pay their bills. Basically, if the books get even bets on both teams they are guaranteed to make that 10% off of the entire amount bet, or the handle. For the individual gambler, this means that one has to hit 52.5% of his bets just to break even. A bettor who can hit 55%, with discipline to bet only specific games, can actually beat the sportsbooks at their own game. That is what this article sets out to do.
I will be posting this weekly for football and it can contain any number of picks. I won’t limit myself to a specific number or require a certain number. There are only so many fifty-five percenters on a weekly basis. I may occasionally throw up a quick post as well adding a few NBA or NCAA bets during the week. At the end of each article I will keep a running tally to see how my progress is coming.
Unlike most gambling articles, this IS both meant to endorse and convince you to get in on the action. If you believe that you may have a gambling problem, then congratulations, you’ve reached Nirvana! To my first round of football weekend picks...

Maryland +18 over FLORIDA ST
I am by no means calling Maryland a good team. In fact, they are awful. But Florida St. giving anybody 18 points is absolutely ridiculous. Florida St. has covered this line exactly once all year and have since lost their best player, quarterback Christian Ponder. Their backup played well last week, but now Maryland has some tape to see how they want to attack him. On top of that, the old man Bobby Bowden is no longer an elite coach. Florida St. would run him out of town, but they don’t want AARP crawling up their ass. Call me skeptical of a mediocre team with a declining coach missing their best player and give me the points.

NORTHWESTERN +7 over Wisconsin
Believe me, it pains me to pick against my Badgers. I think they find a way to win this game, but I don’t see it being by more than one score. The Badgers haven’t won by more than a touchdown on the road all season and Pat Fitzgerald has this Northwestern team improving as the season goes along. Northwestern’s offense relies on a strong passing game and against the Badgers, I see that working. The Badgers cornerbacks typically refuse to look for the ball, instead deciding that staring straight ahead as they run down the field is a better way to prevent their man from catching the ball. Why doing the opposite of any empirical fact ever found makes sense I cannot tell you, but they insist on this idiotic practice. Let’s just say that I’m scared straight up, so I’ll take the points and call it a fifty-five percenter.

Rutgers -9 over SYRACUSE
Greg Schiano once again has his Rutgers team that struggled out of the gate gaining steam towards the end of the season. Throw in the steaming pile of horse crap also known as the Syracuse football program led my former Douche -- I mean Duke -- point guard Greg Paulus, and we have ourselves a blowout. I’ll happily lay the points here.

Kansas St. +16.5 over NEBRASKA
This is one of the most insane college football lines I have seen all season. Let me get this straight: I am suppose to give 16.5 points with a Nebraska team that lost to Iowa St. less than a month ago? This same Nebraska team hasn’t covered this spread against a Big 12 team all year. On top that, they are 4-2 in the conference while Kansas St. is right on their ass at 4-3. Either I am a complete idiot (completely possible) or this line is horribly, horribly wrong. I will label this one my Bet of the Week and laugh as the inept Nebraska offense struggles to SCORE 17, much less cover 17.

Oregon / ARIZONA Under 58.5
I think that this is a game where the general public gets wide eyes at two teams who can score some points and bets the over/under up to a point where it becomes a fifty-five percenter. While Oregon’s offense is loaded, Mike Stoops’ Arizona defense is holding teams to just 3.8 yards per carry in Pac Ten games. I think they can at least slow the Oregon offense enough to keep this one from getting into the 60’s for points scored. And if you think I’m wrong? Well, I’ll just LeGarrette Blount your ass. Sorry, that was too easy.

COWBOYS / Redskins Over 41.5
Jake and I sufficiently bucket dumped on Wade Phillips in the podcast, but I’ll reiterate here: he is a terrible coach. The defense that he has taken control of is merely mediocre and the Washington offense has surprisingly shown a few signs of life in the past few weeks. Throw in a Dallas offense with something to prove after their showing last week and I think this one cruises past this total. And besides that, Cowboys and Indians getting together always ends in a shootout. Wow, that was a TERRIBLE joke.

VIKINGS / Seahawks Over 46
This one is a borderline fifty-five percenter, but I think it just makes the cut. There is absolutely no way the Seahawks stop this Minnesota offense and I think they can manage enough points to send this one over. While we are here, I would like to thank Brett Favre for signing with the Vikings. I thought his actions were AGAINST the Packers, but I now see his logic. He was kind enough to get consistently creepy and child touching Brad Childress a nice fat contract extension, so the Packers get to face his ineptitude for at least several more years. Hide your children Minneapolis parents! We can now expect the Brett Favre second half collapse in five...four...three...

Saints / BUCS Under 51
I mentioned this one in the podcast. The Bucs pass defense has been surprisingly sound this year and I see the Saints running the ball more than usual this week. That should sufficiently run the clock and when coupled with Tampa’s stagnant offense, should give us an under. The Bucs defense should also return Stylez G. White this week. While that will make a difference, I really just wanted to mention the incredible name that is Stylez G. White. Did you know that he actually changed his name in honor of Stylez from Teen Wolf? Now THAT is fantastic!

PATRIOTS -11 over Jets
Bill Belichick angry. You won’t like him when he’s angry.

All Time on ADPTP: 0-0
Last Week’s Record: 0-0
Bet of the Week Record: 0-0